The notion of a census is on our minds this time of year—the
trip to Bethlehem was to participate in one—it’s not too soon to consider the
next United States decennial census coming up in 2020.
At its January 3, 2019 meeting, the Goochland County Board
of Supervisors will hold a public hearing on moving the boundary line between
the Shallow Well and Centerville voting precincts. Both of these polling places
are in District 4 in eastern Goochland, which has seen a significant increase
in new homes in the past few years. More
are being built.
According to the county press release, the Centerville
precinct, located at St. Matthew’s Church has 2,843 voters, while the Shallow Well
precinct, located at the Grace Chinese Baptist Church on Broad Street Road, has
only 1,682 voters.
The proposed change will move the boundary between the two
precincts east from Three Chopt to Manakin Road and relocate 843 voters from
the Centerville to the Shallow Well precinct. Given the new residential construction
in the works east of Manakin Road, the number of voters in the Centerville
precinct will increase as new homes are occupied. The supervisors could vote against
the realignment, but that seems unlikely. GOMM predicts that few, if any,
citizens will comment during the public hearing.
According to state law, the boundary amendment must be
approved before February 1, 2019 and may not be further adjusted until redistricting
following the results of the 2020 census, estimated at May 21, 2021, when new
boundaries based on the 2020 census, could be adopted.
In the meantime, the relocated voters will be represented by
the same supervisor, school board member, and General Assembly Delegate who
currently represent District 4.
Each time a residential rezoning case works its way through
“the process” opponents cite its negative impacts including traffic,
overwhelming schools, fire-rescue, and law enforcement to support their
position.
A more subtle, but important, impact of drastic population
increase in one part of the county is its effect on the composition of the
governing board. In 2011 following the 2010 census, only a few census tracts moved
from one district to another. In the first decade of the 21st
century, Goochland County grew uniformly. That will not be the case in 2020.
Goochland is currently divided into five districts, each of
which has approximately the same number of people in the summer of 2011. As
population increases, those districts will look very different in 2021. The
geographic size of eastern districts will shrink as their population rises,
those to the west will be larger with fewer people. District 3, in the middle,
is having a growth spurt of its own. Previously zoned subdivisions are under construction
and high-density rezoning applications for more houses in Courthouse Village are
in the works.
Tension between the more rural western part of Goochland and
the exurban—sorry, there’s nothing “rural” about living on a fraction of an
acre with public utilities— east could get worse. The current strategy to keep 85
percent of the county “rural” until at least 2035, could be discarded with a
new board that has a different view of the value of residential development.
This precinct boundary amendment is a “housekeeping” measure
for local government. Let’s hope it’s the first of many proactive steps to
prevent the county from being swamped by sudden growth.
What ever happened to the sensible slogan Goochland Growing Gracefully?
Happy New Year!