2020 Vision

The notion of a census is on our minds this time of year—the trip to Bethlehem was to participate in one—it’s not too soon to consider the next United States decennial census coming up in 2020.

At its January 3, 2019 meeting, the Goochland County Board of Supervisors will hold a public hearing on moving the boundary line between the Shallow Well and Centerville voting precincts. Both of these polling places are in District 4 in eastern Goochland, which has seen a significant increase in new homes in the past few years.  More are being built.

According to the county press release, the Centerville precinct, located at St. Matthew’s Church has 2,843 voters, while the Shallow Well precinct, located at the Grace Chinese Baptist Church on Broad Street Road, has only 1,682 voters.

The proposed change will move the boundary between the two precincts east from Three Chopt to Manakin Road and relocate 843 voters from the Centerville to the Shallow Well precinct. Given the new residential construction in the works east of Manakin Road, the number of voters in the Centerville precinct will increase as new homes are occupied. The supervisors could vote against the realignment, but that seems unlikely. GOMM predicts that few, if any, citizens will comment during the public hearing.

According to state law, the boundary amendment must be approved before February 1, 2019 and may not be further adjusted until redistricting following the results of the 2020 census, estimated at May 21, 2021, when new boundaries based on the 2020 census, could be adopted.

In the meantime, the relocated voters will be represented by the same supervisor, school board member, and General Assembly Delegate who currently represent District 4.

Each time a residential rezoning case works its way through “the process” opponents cite its negative impacts including traffic, overwhelming schools, fire-rescue, and law enforcement to support their position.

A more subtle, but important, impact of drastic population increase in one part of the county is its effect on the composition of the governing board. In 2011 following the 2010 census, only a few census tracts moved from one district to another. In the first decade of the 21^st century, Goochland County grew uniformly. That will not be the case in 2020.

Goochland is currently divided into five districts, each of which has approximately the same number of people in the summer of 2011. As population increases, those districts will look very different in 2021. The geographic size of eastern districts will shrink as their population rises, those to the west will be larger with fewer people. District 3, in the middle, is having a growth spurt of its own. Previously zoned subdivisions are under construction and high-density rezoning applications for more houses in Courthouse Village are in the works.

Tension between the more rural western part of Goochland and the exurban—sorry, there’s nothing “rural” about living on a fraction of an acre with public utilities— east could get worse. The current strategy to keep 85 percent of the county “rural” until at least 2035, could be discarded with a new board that has a different view of the value of residential development.

This precinct boundary amendment is a “housekeeping” measure for local government. Let’s hope it’s the first of many proactive steps to prevent the county from being swamped by sudden growth.

What ever happened to the sensible slogan Goochland Growing Gracefully?

Happy New Year!