The devil is in the details

During the public hearing section of  their first meeting of 2018, Goochland County’s supervisors deferred a decision on yet another residential rezoning application—for Swann’s Inn—until March. By then the supervisors expect to adopt a development impact model to help  gauge the true cost of new homes.

They did approve rezoning of  4.45 acres adjacent to Rt. 288 and an accompanying conditional use permit for a  building height of 80 or so feet, both to move the Sheltering Arms rehabilitation hospital in West Creek, roughly opposite the Wawa, to move forward.

The long meeting finished with adoption of the 25 year capital improvement plan (CIP), which was crafted as part of the capital impact model.

Since its creation decades ago, West Creek, a 3,500 acre enclave on Goochland’s eastern border, was touted as an economic engine whose revenues would fund local government and preserve “rural character” everywhere else.

Even after creation of the Tuckahoe Creek Service District, which brought water and sewer to much of West Creek and bisection by state route 288, West Creek still resembles a nature preserve  more than an economic engine.

Things have picked up there in recent years with new projects including medical office building, the hospital, apartments, and, of all things, the magnificent new campus of the Hardywood Park Craft Brewery. Though not the corporate headquarters originally envisioned for West Creek, these bring jobs, increase property values, which in turn boost real estate taxes, and add users to the TCSD.

As western Henrico runs out of raw land, the push for development is sloshing into Goochland. Mixed-use zoning was recently approved for the old Oak Hill property on Route 6.

Rezoning applications for two residential communities in the Hockett Road corridor, one in West Creek, the other at the edge of the Centerville Village, to bring more than 800 homes, caused the supervisors to tap the development brakes. Before increasing by ten percent  the number of  homes in the county, the supervisors want to better understand how this dramatic increase in population will affect the cost of delivering government services.

The planning commission recommended approval of an expanded capital facilities plan at its January 4 meeting. This will replace chapter 6 in the 2035  Comprehensive Land Use Plan. It is also a component of the capital impact model. (See the packet for the January 4 planning commission meeting for details.)

This deep dive into county infrastructure was a prudent move by the supervisors.

The results dispelled some conventional wisdom. For instance, the notion that the county would build a new elementary school somewhere in the eastern end of the county, may not come to pass. The school board recommends, going forward 25 years, that the county stick with three elementary schools with larger capacities. A new Randolph will be built at some point. The site has not been determined and it could pretty much stay where it is.

Another assumption, that the next new county built fire-rescue station be located in West Creek, may also be flawed. There is no fire-rescue station in District 2, which is also experiencing a residential growth spurt. This increases homeowner’s insurance premiums and potential for  loss of life and property.

Goochland Fire-Rescue Chief Bill MacKay, during a December 11 workshop on the 25 year CIP,  said that Manakin Company 1 and Centerville Company 3 could provide fire-rescue coverage to the east end if they were adequately staffed. He also pointed out that it can take up to 25 minutes for fire apparatus to reach remote parts of District 2 from exisiting stations.

Funding assumptions in the 25 year CIP  are based on retention of the 53 cent per hundred dollars of assessed valuation tax rate. This rate has been in place for at least a decade. Some residents argue that the tax rate should rise, others believe the rate is too high.

Economic development has picked up in the past few years. However, thanks to the TCSD debt, the county must attract a lot of new business every year to stay even. Although real estate tax revenues grow each year due to new construction and appreciation, it remains to be seen if proposed residential enclaves can pay for themselves.

The supervisors will need to decide, no matter what, which capital projects—and the list is long—take precedence. They may also need  “to have a conversation with the community” about floating a bond issue, and incur additional debt, to fund these items sooner rather than later.

In 2014, the supervisors adopted a four year strategic plan (see goochlandva.us under supervisor’s tab),  which includes a goal of “balanced development that contributes to the welfare of the community and preserves its rural character.”

Finding the sweet spot between development pressures in the east and the welfare of the entire county is a delicate task. Growth is like fire—controlled it provides heat and energy, unchecked, it devours everything in its path. 

The next few months will be interesting indeed.