Man plans God laughs

 Construction of a new Goochland Elementary School (GES) has been on the drawing board for quite some time. It began as an entry in the county's capital improvement plan a few years ago. Based on county population growth expectations, its capacity was increased to 700—650 K through grade 5 students plus 50 preschool students— in about 104,000 square feet. What, at the time, was considered to be an inclusive and conservative estimate of its cost, a bit over $39.3 million, was mentioned in last November's bond referendum.

The rampant inflation infecting every facet of our lives, has also played havoc with the new GES. Initial estimates came in about $54.3, roughly $15 million higher than expected. The School Division went back to the drawing broad earlier this year for a redesign in hopes of significantly reducing the price tag. The estimated cost of the new design, a simpler building with a smaller footprint, lopped only about $1.4 million off bottom line.

On April 12, a joint workshop between the school board and supervisors addressed the issue. As the cost estimate for the latest iteration of the school was "hot off the presses", there were many unanswered questions. Among them, could the school as designed be built on an alternate site more economically. A factor in the high cost of the school is the site work needed for construction on a parcel of land on Bulldog Way, which was already owned by the school division. The redesign had little impact on the cost of site work, which involves wetlands and needs approval from the Army Corps of Engineers.

How to proceed was the topic of the April 12 meeting. Jeremy Raley, Ed. D., superintendent of county schools contended that "time is of the essence" with the project, which has already fallen behind schedule, so the new GES can be opened at the start of the 24-25 school year.

Raley said that other Virginia school divisions are grappling with construction projects coming in over budget at similar percentages. He shared some good news. The high school cooling tower replacement project, which was budgeted at $1.1 million came in at $600k and the GMS/GHS paving project was $300k under budget.

The new GES is still in the conceptual design phase, explained Raley, the numbers on the table are best "guestimates". The design needs to be completed in detail and go out to bid to obtain a clear picture of actual costs. Given the delays that have already occurred, the project would not be ready to go out to bid until the end of 2022, with building perhaps beginning in early 2023 providing about an 18-month construction cycle in order to open in the summer of 2024.

School Board Chair Mike Newman, District 4, said that the school division either needs to decide not to go forward, or prepare the project for bids. "We've made a commitment to the community. We were all shocked at the costs. Everything we've tried to do is to get to less cost so that it's in the range of possibility. I think we have to go forward with the design so that when that number comes back, that will be when we know what we can do."

District 3 Supervisor John Lumpkins, Jr., a former school board member, wondered if saving a million bucks on the redesign is worth it.

Board Char Neil Spoonhower, District 2 asked what the school board wants the supervisors to do.

Newman acknowledged that the schools look to the supervisors to pay for the school. He hoped that when the final costs are known, a solution to bridge the funding gap can be found. The school board, he said, has already looked at the larger amount of money available from the bond sale and wondered if any of that could be used on the new GES. Newman said that while the costs were not what had been expected, continual revision to the design to fit the budget could result in a school that will not serve the community well in the long term.

District 5 Supervisor Ken Peterson asked about a plan B for an alternate site or total renovation of the exiting building. Raley said that the schools have not moved forward on any of those possible options.

J. D. Wright, District 5 school board member said building consensus is difficult because the latest information is so new. He said that in his business construction costs have come down a little from initial estimates. Wright was hopeful that a way can be found through value engineering and postponing other school projects in the CIP to fund the new GES.

There was some conversation about deferring the project, in expectation of a possible recession that could lower construction costs. As the debt service meter on the $60 million of bonds is ticking, there is a cost to delay.

Concerns were raised about a breach of community trust if the county spent about 30 percent more on the school than was approved in the referendum. Peterson said that the citizens were told that their tax rates would not increase, nor would the county's
"rainy day" fund be raided to pay for the capital projects funded by the bonds.

Raley said that until the bids come in, the "projected costs" are one firm's estimate. "We won't know the final price until bid day."

Interim County Administrator, the Hon. Manuel Alvarez, Jr., former District 2 supervisor, said that it seemed like the school board was asking the supervisors to approve a blank check for $53 million.

Angela Allen, District 2 School Board member said, "I think we're (schools) asking you to stay in the boat with us, sink or swim, until the bids come back and then we'll decide if we need the boat."

District 1 Supervisor Susan Lascolette said that she was unwilling to do anything at that point without more information.

Peterson said, that as long as the costs for the new GES are competitive with what other divisions in Virginia are paying and both boards come together to find ways to fill the gap, there would be no breach of citizen trust.

Schools will go back and present the supervisors with results of cursory investigations of alternate sites without incurring additional expense. A plan for finding the additional $13.6 million by moving projects around in the CIP and other fund sources will also be presented.

Board of Supervisors' Chair Neil Spoonhower, District 2 said that both boards need to find consensus on the issue, which is difficult with so many unknowns. Hopefully, in the next few weeks, additional data will help to fill the void. Kudos to the supervisors and school board for honest and constructive discussions about the new GES project.

To listen to the April 12 conversation, go to the county website https://www.goochlandva.us/ and click on "watch county meetings" tab.