Goochland fiscal condition

 

Events of interest for the rest of February

·       February 16, 6 p.m. at Central High School Educational and Cultural Complex at 2748 Dogtown Road a community meeting about the county’s proposed solar policy and ordinance.

·       February 21 at 2 p.m. Goochland County Administrator Vic Carpenter will present his recommended budget for FY24.

·       February 27 at St. Matthew’s Church, 1706 St. Matthew’s Lane, beginning at 6 p.m. a community meeting on an application for a conditional use permit filed by SP Real Estate for an automobile dealership at 12501 Borad Street Road. This is on the outparcel in front of the Residence Inn, opposite the Wawa. Correction, this parcel is just west of the Henrico line on the south side of 250 at the literal gateway to Goochland.

 

The supervisors who took office in January of 2012 faced the daunting task of funding core county services without raising the tax rate as real estate valuations continued to decline, and rescuing Goochland from the brink of bankruptcy.

They succeeded. In the intervening years, Goochland County earned three AAA bond ratings—the smallest county population-wise in the nation to do so—restructured the ill-conceived Tuckahoe Creek Service District debt to a manageable level and retained the 53 cents per hundred dollars of assessed valuation tax rate.

Among the many prudent policies and procedures adopted to ensure sound and sustainable funding, the budget process looks ahead a year or two to avoid surprises, and smooth rough spots between good and bad years. Projections are made conservatively, preferring surprises on the upside rather than unexpected shortfalls in revenue.

The bond ratings enabled the county, after receiving the blessing of voters in the 2021 election, to issue general obligation bonds before interest rates rose to fund badly needed capital projects.

The county audit committee, which collaborates with county and school finance departments to keep the county’s fiscal ship on course, met on February 7 to review the current financial picture and gauge possible headwinds.

Goochland Director of Financial Services Carla Cave presented results for the second quarter of FY23. She reported that, so far, revenues exceed expenses by a healthy margin. Cave was optimistic that the picture might be even rosier by the end of the fiscal year on June 30. (Go to http://goochlandcountyva.iqm2.com/Citizens/FileOpen.aspx?Type=1&ID=1377&Inline=True page 105 for details.) “We’re in a good place,” Cave said in summary of the latest results.

“This is how Goochland County manages its finances,” Audit Committee Chair, District 5 supervisor Ken Peterson said. “We use a structurally balanced budget where recurring revenues cover recurring expenses and generates a slight surplus.” Any surplus is used to maintain the county’s asset base and prevent deterioration of  facilities and equipment.

The county budget for FY24, which ends about 18 months out, is now in process. Peterson discussed information prepared by the governor’s office about the timing and severity of a possible recession.

 (go to  https://www.finance.virginia.gov/media/governorvirginiagov/secretary-of-finance/pdf/JMC-Dec2022-with-Appendix.pdf to view the “slides.)

“Inflation has been on everybody’s mind because it has a devastating impact, especially on the most vulnerable in society,” said Peterson. “We’ve all seen the price of everything from eggs to gasoline skyrocket.”

This puts pressure of budgets at all levels where income cannot keep pace with costs. Peterson said that the county must be mindful of the effects of an expected recession in the next few years on the county budget. As most Goochland revenues come from real estate taxes, any decline in property valuations is a concern.

Robust gains in housing prices in the past couple of years filled county coffers, but county budgets will continue to be crafted with flat to slightly higher valuation assumptions. Any excess will fund a carefully curated list of items that were not included in the budget.

For example, the FY23 budget was based on a four percent year over year increase rather than the actual jump of approximately eleven percent. Unanticipated valuation increases are viewed as an anomaly rather than a trend to avoid spending money that might not be there every year.

There was consensus among audit committee members that crafting a “flat” budget for FY24 is a prudent course to deal with the murky financial outlook for the next few years.