Southern Infrastructure Study part next

 

On September 10, a follow up was held to a March 26 kick off for the southeastern infrastructure study (SIS). Consultants Timmons Group and 3TP were retained by the county to evaluate existing infrastructure and analyze improvements needed to support different kinds of growth for the area roughly around the intersection of Rts. 288 and 6.

SIS area Goochland County photo

Steve Schmidt of Timmons explained that they used the results of this investigation to create a tool to help county decision makers determine the impact of a proposed development on county services and infrastructure, a sort of “if then” approach. They presented three very generic growth scenarios with estimates of road lanes, classrooms, and fire-rescue stations they would require. Again, these pictures were painted with a very broad brush. National standards were used to estimate things like trips per day and utility use generated by different kinds of development. Details would be fleshed out during individual rezoning—most of the land in the SIS is currently zoned agricultural—processes. All land in the SIS area is privately owned. “Commercial” denotes land used to generate revenue as opposed to residential.

Designated growth area in red border Goochland County photo

The main goal of the SIS is to provide empirical data based on current conditions to provide a baseline to evaluate projects. It is not a policy making tool and does not make recommendations for land use or other regulations.

This tool has been badly needed for a long time. Developers tend to paint their proposals in the best light possible, downplaying their impact on schools, fire-rescue, roads, and utilities. When these contentions are accepted at face value, the county is often left to clean up messes that could have been prevented had better information been available at the initial decision-making stage.

SIS parcels in blue Goochland County photo

Increased property values resulting from construction of new homes may cover increases in governmental operating expenses, like salaries. However, developers often deflect questions about funding infrastructure to support residential growth contending that cash proffers will pay for them, which is a wild exaggeration. Tax revenue generated by homes is not as robust as that from commercial use, said Schmidt. “The more land used for residential purposes; the less economically productive land is available.”

Survey results from the March meeting indicated that Goochlanders place quality county services at the top of their priority list, followed by preservation of rural areas, and high-quality county schools.

The SIS investigated the capacity of fire-rescue stations, schools, water and sewer, and roads. Curiously, as the county seems to be investigating the possibility of attracting data centers, neither electric power nor fiber optic cable, both vital for data centers, were mentioned.

State and national forecasts, and real estate trends were used to build three scenarios with different use components to estimate their impact on infrastructure, ranging from mostly residential to purely commercial use. The tool enables “plugging in” various percentages and speed of build out for each category to estimate impacts, including the number of road lanes and classrooms needed to support the level of that type of development. It also allows varying density, to see how that impacts infrastructure needs. Road lanes have no geographic location, just what would be needed to accommodate traffic generated by different scenarios for 90 percent build out.

This raw data would require additional detailed investigation. For instance, if the tool indicates that more elementary classrooms are needed in the Randolph district, it could trigger the need for a new elementary school. Schmidt said that expansion of Randolph is limited by drain field capacity at its current site.

No comparisons to existing places were included to avoid value judgements. This makes it hard to visualize, for instance what does 2.5 million square feet of commercial look like? Some sort of reference point is needed. The consultants tried to contextualize it by saying that it is 2.5 times what is there now. Comparing it to Short Pump, they contended, would not be useful because the SIS area is much larger.

The study area was divided into “land bays” of contiguous property with common features, rather than specific parcels to avoid any inference about where a particular kind of development should go. The tool does not opine or recommend zoning or specific uses for specific parcels. Only vacant land was included in the study. Consultants rode around the area, but did not visit any specific parcel.

The amount of real estate tax estimated in each scenario was gross, not net. Who pays for infrastructure improvements generated by growth is a contentious topic. The final SIS report will include costing out the improvements generated by the tool. Developers tend to resist funding improvements, even the most rudimentary, like turn lanes.

Only 90 percent of the total of the SIS area, 75 percent of which was estimated to be developable, was used, limited by wetlands and topographical challenges.

It will be interesting to see the cost estimates for various kinds of infrastructure improvements, which will be included in the next phase of the SIS.

Go to https://www.goochlandva.us/1280/Southeastern-Infrastructure-Study-SIS for details.

A video of the September 10 meeting at Hope Church is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO26h8oDKso