Budget surprises

 

Budgeting can be tricky. No matter how carefully expenses and revenues are forecast, stuff happens. Goochland supervisors learned of unexpected expenses in the current fiscal year during the Mach 3. Later in the afternoon, they faced potential budget challenges from schools for FY27.

The supervisors voted to advertise tax rates for calendar year 2026, which remain unchanged, except for an increase from 40 cents to three dollars per hundred dollars of assessed valuation on data center personal property tax. Rates and fees will be approved next month. The supervisors are able approve rates lower than those advertised but cannot raise them without readvertisement.

In the next two months, the budget presented on February 17 will be heavily tweaked before final approval in May.

During the quarterly meeting of the finance committee, which preceded the regular monthly meeting Raley and Director of Emergency Services Robin Hillman, explained the fiscal impact of winter storm “Fern” on Goochland.

Raley said that the emergency declaration in January potentially makes the county eligible for reimbursement of expenses incurred during the storm from federal and state sources. The process is quite complicated.

He commended Hillman who “led us through this every step of the way from day one” by advocating recording time spent on storm related operations; keeping track of invoices; and all other costs. Raley estimated the unbudgeted cost to date at $478,009. This includes staff time and the significant cost of hiring heavy equipment, to remove accumulation of icy snowcrete at county and school facilities.

In addition to clean up, five public safety vehicles were damaged during the storm; 22 animals were taken to the shelter, two of which required emergency surgery; and a water main break on a weekend that required emergency repairs including to some roads. All were unanticipated costs to the county.

The state public assistance threshold for Goochland is $98,908, however Raley expects the to county to receive a lower amount. The possible federal reimbursement could be o$167k “if we get lucky”. The all-in budget hit to the county, assuming these reimbursements, is a bit over $200k.

The county may declare a state of emergency for any event it deems impactful to operations. In this case, the county followed the state declaration of emergency, which paves the way for reimbursement, which is calculated at approximately $4 per resident.

Hillman said that because the storm did not meet historic snow levels, the state contends it is not required to issue reimbursements even though the ice event was more difficult to mitigate. She expected to meet with state officials to obtain more clarity on reimbursement criteria. There is a lot of “pushback” on this.

Lessons from the 2022 ice storm, said Hillman, included asking for community volunteers with four-wheel drive vehicles to help with non-emergency citizen needs like delivering meals and medicine. Several residents helped with this.

Preparedness, having enough food, water, fuel, and other necessities to shelter in place for 72 hours is vital she said. Communication was also important. Hillman staffed the county’s emergency operations center (EOC) during the storm to ensure that needed resources were available.

Messaging, she said, was extremely important, especially during the cold that accompanied the storm. Urging people to stay off iced over ponds and keep their animals away from them avoided tragedy.

Raley commended team Goochland for its work in communications, especially as the county was in the process of switching from Code Red to Goochland Alerts (https://member.everbridge.net/77895137493098/login) to disseminate emergency notices.

Board Chair Jonathan Christy, District 1, noted that the special election referendum on mid-decade electoral redistricting, (https://www.goochlandva.us/359/Elections-and-Voter-Registration) will cost the county an estimated $45k and urged all citizens to vote. This is an example of an unfunded mandate imposed on localities by the General Assembly

During the afternoon session Dr. Andy Armstrong, superintendent of Goochland Schools, presented the division’s budget for FY27, approved by the school board, which reflects a 6.3 percent increase over FY26.

The county transfer to schools included in the FY27 recommended budget presented by Raley on February 17 was in line with the 3.7 percent expected increase in local tax revenue. The school budget presented by Armstrong requests a county transfer of about $2.5 million over the $31,429,844 recommended by Raley.

Schools also get revenue from state and federal sources.

The mechanism used to determine state funding, the local composite index, which is .80 for Goochland. That means that Goochland receives only 20 percent of cost from the Commonwealth.

Currently, the LCI formula takes three factors of a locality into account: adjusted gross income, which carries a weight of 40% in the calculation; the value of real property, which makes up 50% of the calculation; and taxable retail sales at 10%. Because Goochland has a small population, about 28,000, it takes few high-income residents to skew the income component away from reality. In comparison, the LCI for our neighbors with larger populations is Henrico 43; Chesterfield 35; and Hanover 50.

The state requires schools to adopt their budgets by June 30 even though sometimes state and federal budgets are finalized after this deadline making revenue projections like trying to hit a moving target.

The supervisors and school board will hold a budget workshop on March 17 at 6 p.m. in room 270 of the admin building, which will undoubtedly feature difficult conversations.

Our FY27 budget could also be hobbled by more unfunded mandates from the General Assembly in the next few weeks.

All budget discussions highlight the need for robust economic development to fund needs in Goochland. Stay tuned as the budget evolves toward approval.