A shot in the dark

               The fiftieth anniversary of the ill-fated Apollo 13 moon mission reminds us of the power of American ingenuity in times of crisis. When on board systems failed Apollo 13, engineers on the ground worked with the astronauts to craft a life saving solution using only what was on the spacecraft to bring the crew safely back to earth.That seems a lot like the way that Goochland County and schools are reworking their operations and budgets to stay afloat during the current pandemic fiscal crisis. 

               The Goochland School Board held its regular monthly meeting on April 14 in the administration building board room. Social distancing and a limit of 10 people in the room was observed. The meeting was made available in its entirety on Facebook live.

   

               “So much has changed since we last met on March 10,” Dr. Jeremy Raley, Goochland Superintendent of Schools said at the start of the meeting. “Everything changed overnight; no one saw this coming. Although our classrooms are empty work and school continues.”

               Raley reported that 2,297 meals have been served to children and 51 to adults since March 13.  The GCPS food service team is on the front lines during this closure providing warm healthy meals day in day out. He thanked the fire-rescue department for its support of food by hosting the Sunshine bus at three stations.

“We did not run the Sunshine Bus yesterday due to bad weather,” said Raley. “Thanks to Fire-Rescue Chief Eddie Ferguson, who volunteered the stations as a substitute, 31 meals were served to kids. This is another way that our community comes together for the good of all.”

“The custodial team has sanitized each facility and is hard at work on low and no cost tasks. Our instructional team has done a great job preparing materials in electronic and hard copy.  One second grade teacher said she would have been unable to do this without support from teammates across the entire school division,” said Raley.

 He said that the goal is for students to continue to learn with an eye to the challenges families face as they juggle multiple disruptions to daily life.  Administration and support staff continue to perform their functions. The technical team has deployed three new external Wi-Fi hotspots with stronger signals at all elementary schools and at the front and back of secondary complex to supplement other hotspots in the community. Transportation has installed extra lights on all buses for additional safety next year.

“A huge shout out to all of our employees and thank you for what you are doing to continue the excellence of our school division,” said Raley.

“It’s phenomenal what you can pull together in a short time with few resources,” said School Board Chairperson John Wright, District 5.

Graduation will be held, Raley declared, and prom has not been cancelled.

Raley urged all to complete the 2020 census whose results are important for planning and obtaining funding for community service. All those dollars have an impact.

Debbie White, Finance Director for Goochland Schools, presented amended budget proposals reflecting a best guess expected revenue shortfalls in the current and next fiscal year.  She reviewed the budget for the current and upcoming fiscal year line by line for the proposals. “This is a shot in the dark, we won’t know the full impact of the economic situation for a while,” she said

The critical unknown in fiscal planning is sales tax revenue, White explained. (go to https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1vzX7qqkT46GZOT6XBe7V5k3NSp8fI8arL7DPvP_JVH8/edit?ts=5e8e0810#slide=id.g721411f394_0_268 to view the “slides” of her presentation.) The unprecedented halt to economic activity has made modeling for its impact very difficult. Although the Commonwealth has predicted a $1 billion decline in revenue over the next two fiscal years, its first projections using real data will not be available until mid-May. The General Assembly will address the budget on April 22.

No significant decrease in Lottery Revenue is expected. Sales tax revenues, reported two months after the fact, could be far less than projected for FY 2020 and be about equal to the 2015 receipts, about nine percent less than actual FY2019 numbers. “This is just a shot in dark, we really have no idea what sales tax receipts will be,” White said.

Expected revenues for FY2020 are $138k less due to lower enrolment; $416 K less due to decline in sales tax revenue; $20 k more due to unchanged state “caboose” budget”; $150k less due to reduction in local transfer; and $30k less due to decrease in local charge for service for a total reduction  of $714K.

To offset the revue decline, cancellation of a three bus order at $285K;  $93k less in utility costs; $262.5K savings in fuel and transportation stipends; and $247.5 K reductions in other expenditures result in a savings of $888K if all but payroll for FY2020 is cut.

For FY2021, White estimated an approximately $1.488 million net revenue loss, which is all subject to change depending on what the state and Goochland supervisors do. To meet income shortfall, White proposed removing all or part of the proposed goal initiatives (see slides for details); and ordering only one new bus at $190K.

White said that, under expanded unemployment insurance rules, it is slightly less expensive to retain, rather than furlough, employees. Open jobs should be carefully evaluated.

Capital improvement priorities include delaying the new Goochland Elementary School by at least one year; but completing the Randolph Parking improvement project, which is partially funded with proffer money. Smaller projects could be completed with CIP money from FY2020.

White cautioned about Corona virus impact on students such as real or perceived family health/death concerns; socio emotional needs caused by job loss, homelessness, etc.; and the potential for an influx of students from families who can no longer afford private schools.

The approved budget will likely be revised during the coming months as the actual financial data is received.

No one knows if this financial disruption is a bump in the road or a bottomless sink hole. 

White was recognized for her contribution to the School Business Official Starter kit publication produced by the Association of School Business Officials International. “She is an amazingly hard worker dedicated to our school division we are blessed to have her on team,” said Raley.