Mushroom Food

              

            Sequestered here in the bunker at world headquarters, GOMM follows the Covid 19 statistics released daily by various entities around the Commonwealth and tries to make sense of them. The task is like divining the future from tea leaves or chicken bones.

Many of us are staying home. When we do venture out, often wearing masks of our own creation, observe social distancing. We wash our hands a lot, many of us badly need haircuts, and believe that there is a special place in heaven for parents juggling home schooling with their other daily responsibilities.  

Rumors are rife. Theories, conspiracy and otherwise, are plentiful. The one thing in short supply, is accurate information about what is really going on.  Is this quarantine a shiny object to distract us from a greater threat? Is it a way for the government to get everyone’s DNA?  Have too few people spit into a cup to find out where their ancestors came from?  At some point in the future, will the government require everyone be tested to see who has antibodies to Covid 19 for the public good?  If you decline to participate, will there be penalties? No jail time, but maybe you won’t be able to fly, or go to a sporting event, or even eat in restaurants lest infect others.

               We don’t know what to believe. Governor Northam, who was a doctor before he became political, tells us Virginia needs to stay locked down until at least May 8 to be safe. His stay at home order is still in force until June 10. How was that date determined?

               The Virginia Department of Health releases Covid 19 statistics daily. These include the total number of tests administered, the positive results, those hospitalized and the cumulative number of fatalities. The website http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/ also includes statistics by health district and county. Goochland is part of the Chickahominy Health District (CHD), comprised of Goochland, Hanover, Charles City, and New Kent Counties. Numbers for tests conducted, hospitalizations, and deaths, are listed by health district. Today, April 21, more details by locality were included.

               However, these numbers may not be all that timely. The CHD, for instance, receives reports of testing, vets them to ensure that the cases are for people who live in the CHD, then sends the information to VDH. For instance, if you live in Goochland and you are tested in Henrico, ideally, you will be identified as a Goochland resident and your results sent to the CHD, which will forward them to VDH for inclusion in a daily report. Reporting organizations, VDH, CHD, and others are struggling to report data that they receive in a variety of forms—apparently there is no uniform reporting system—including electronically and by hard to read fax.

               We know that there have been many cases, and deaths, in health care settings where people with other health issues live in close quarters. We don’t know how many of the currently 324 deaths statewide, except for the approximately 50 at the Canterbury Rehab Center in Henrico, are included in that total.  The VDH website indicates that 79 deaths have occurred in long term or congregate care settings.

               The Department of Correction publishes its own daily numbers at https://vadoc.virginia.gov/news-press-releases/2020/covid-19-updates/ . The Virginia Correctional Center for Women and another DOC facility are in Goochland. The DOC website reports the number of offenders at VCCW that tested positive and are hospitalized. One reportedly passed away last week at the VCU medical center in Richmond. This fatality shows up on the DOC website, but the VDH website does not list any fatalities at a correctional facility. DOC also lists the number of staff and contractors associated with units in Goochland who tested positive. These numbers rise and fall, with no indication if the lower numbers mean recovery. The latter datum does not indicate how many in that group live in the county.

               So, when you go back to the VDH statistics, which seem to include CHD numbers, things get a little foggy. The VDH numbers indicate that there have been no Covid 19 related deaths in correctional facilities.  We do not know how many cases not associated with DOC facilities there are in Goochland. For instance, on April 21, VDH indicates 62 cases in Goochland while DOC indicates that 13 offenders and 35 staff and contractors tested positive.  There is no way to tell how many of the staff and contractors live in Goochland. If you subtract the 48 DOC cases from the VDH reported cases, there are 12 cases in the county. However, it is unclear if any of the DOC cases are included in the VDH report. Is the actual number of cases in Goochland 62, or as many as 110 if all the DOC numbers are included?

               There is no reporting on recovery.  The Johns Hopkins Covid 19 website reported local recoveries but now does it by country. A CHD representative said that there are no clear criteria for recovery, it’s done on a case by case basis as determined by healthcare professionals.

The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association: https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/ reports on the number of people who tested positive that were released from hospitals every day. The VHHA does not include a fatality count.

               Then there is the question of how deaths are being attributed to Covid 19. Is it assumed if someone has symptoms or extreme respiratory distress that there is a Covid related death?

     Clear data demonstrating the need to shut down the world would make it much easier to accept. We want to believe that what we’re doing is necessary. At the least it can’t hurt and better safe than sorry. As the justification for all of this becomes murkier, we feel like mushrooms—kept in the dark and fed manure.

       Stay healthy my friends, wash your hands and keep you distance. Just in case they’re right.