Is Goochland busting out all over?

Every time a residential rezoning application starts through the county’s land use process, virulent opposition declares that Goochland will soon be covered with houses. New residents, opponents contend, will overwhelm public safety resources, and flood our school division with new students.

Just how fast is Goochland growing? If you drive down Hockett Road, it seems like houses pop out of the ground after every rain. New homes are also rising in Courthouse Village.

According to the Weldon-Cooper Center at the University of Virginia (https://demographics.coopercenter.org/virginia-population-estimates), Goochland’s population as of 2019 was estimated to be 23,472 up from the 2010 census count of 21,717. Numbers in the 2020 census—if you have not yet completed your census forms please do so—will be higher. The county’s population as recorded in the 1970 census was 10,069; the 2040 population is projected to be 29,451. To put things into perspective Henrico’s current population is approximately 330,000. Goochland has slightly more land area than its neighbor to the east. There is also some indication that the overall population of Virginia is declining.

Goochland Director of Community Development Jo Ann Hunter presented an overview of current residential growth as indicated at the June 2 supervisors’ meeting. 

 Approximately 75 to 100 “by right” lots—created by breaking up existing large parcels— are also developed per year. These agricultural splits, which tend to be located in areas zoned A-1 and A-2, account for about half of new lots annually.

Hunter used a map to illustrate residential lots created by rezoning actively under construction, or pending by location, maximum number of homes approved, number of lots recorded, and the projected date of build out.

Approved residential lots.

Hunter pointed out that of the 2,410 approved residential lots, 1,962 are in age restricted communities, which do not add students to the school division.  These include Avery Point and Tuckahoe Pines, both located in the very eastern part of Goochland, which are multi-story buildings.

In spite of Covid lockdowns, interest and activity in new residential communities is robust. Completion of Reader’s Branch, on the east side of Hockett Road, for instance, is moving faster than its anticipated eight year build out and could be finished in three to four years. “Build it and they are coming”  Hunter said.

She said that the actual number of new homes completed in 2019 was 213, which was the highest number in several years. The average household size 4.3, which, Hunter estimates increases the county’s head count by five hundred people each year.  “It’s healthy to have new residents,” she said. That number translates into an overall growth rate of about two percent, which, she contended is manageable and does not over tax county services.

Many of the recently approved subdivisions, including Tuckahoe Bridge and Manakin Towne are still in the engineering phase. At Reed Marsh in Courthouse Village, however, site work is well underway, though no lots have been recorded. Build out for the up to 64 approved lots in Reed Marsh, according to Hunter’s chart, is expected to take up to five years.

The Reed Marsh community  in Courthouse Village is well underway.

Building permit submissions continue at the same rate as before the Covid lockdown, Hunter reported.

Going forward no large residential rezoning applications are pending.  The only project on the horizon is an estimated 330-unit apartment community in West Creek. This would be on the remaining 20 of 60 acres approved in 2012 for multifamily use.

Market forces will determine how fast these new subdivisions will be completed. The long-term economic consequences of the Covid lockdown and their impact on the economy are still unknown.  Utilities—water and sewer—available only small portion of Goochland, are necessary to support large subdivisions.