Another land use tool

Designated growth area (Goochland County image)

 

SIS area (Goochland County image)

Goochland is growing. Seems like every time you turn around there’s another rezoning application to build homes, or preferably, businesses. Before any dirt is moved, applications go through a lengthy process where developers make their case for their project, and the public gets to weigh in. The planning commission reviews the application, holds its own public hearing, makes a recommendation—the planning commission is an advisory body, with no power to approve or deny any land use change—and the supervisors make the final call.

Discussions during the process tend to range from “not in my backyard” objections from citizens to developer contentions that the proposal is beneficial for Goochland. Supervisors are bombarded with opinions from all sides. Community development staff reports summarize applications, but evaluating the potential impact of projects to avoid unintended consequences has been difficult.

A case in point is the Avery Point Continuing Care Community in West Creek, approved a few years back. The supervisors welcomed a significant investment in the county, especially in the Tuckahoe Creek Service District, which would not add children to our school population. They did not, however, consider the significant increase in emergency medical service (EMS) response generated by the older residents in Avery Point.

The county has long needed a tool to objectively analyze the impact of different kinds of development on county resources, including, schools, fire-rescue, law enforcement, public utilities, and perhaps most important, roads.

Last year, Goochland County hired Timmons Group and 3TP Ventures, to take a detailed look at currently available resources for an area roughly centered on the intersection of Routes 288 and 6, labeled the southern infrastructure study (SIS). The report was presented to the supervisors at their December 3 meeting and is available in its entirety on the county website https://www.goochlandva.us/ under the planning and zoning section of the community development tab. According to County Administrator Vic Carpenter, the bid for the SIS was $340k, which he anticipates will be lower when the account is settled.

The SIS examines approximately 3,250 out of the 21,000 acres in eastern Goochland considered the designated growth area, (DGA). The county’s total area is 187,000 acres.  Something of an anomaly, this area has been set aside in recent updates to the county comprehensive land use as needing more detailed study.

Development, especially commercial development, is encouraged here to keep the rest of the county rural. All land in the DGA is privately owned, mostly zoned for agricultural use, which requires rezoning for development. SIS points out that the owners of the land may have development visions different than those in the county’s comprehensive land use plan, which is used to guide land use decisions.

Parcels in the study area were grouped into “land bays” with similar characteristics. Most of the land is partially or undeveloped. The report includes a description and discussion of possible uses in each land bay. Land south of Route 6 in the River Road corridor is perhaps the most sensitive. Development there could generate robust opposition from current residents. The report concedes that not all land is developable, and assumed that 75 percent could be used, which could vary by land bay. This percentage deletes things like wetlands, topography, and easements from total acreage.

The initial report, however, used school attendance data that did not reflect redistricting for the new Goochland Elementary School, which opened in August, and stated that a new Randolph Elementary School was a critical need. That has been corrected in the final report, which still advises that a new RES is needed sooner rather than later.

Excellent charts and graphs in the report illustrate infrastructure impacts of various development scenarios on county infrastructure. One clearly shows that homes generate more demand for government services and less revenue than other uses. The SIS does not show where road lanes should be built, but rather indicates that a certain amount of a particular kind of use will require additional traffic lanes, not necessarily all in the same place.

SIS is a tool. It does not change existing zoning, or the comprehensive or any other land use plan. It does make a good case for updating the county’s 2040 major thoroughfare plan, which was crafted in 2018 and has several “conceptual” roads that were never built and do not align with recent development. SIS does not propose new regulations, taxes, or changes in personnel. The county is hiring more people in the community development department to manage its burgeoning workload.

The plan identifies the immediate need for another fire-rescue station in the area. The long planned, Station 7, on Hockett Road near its intersection with Tuckahoe Creek Parkway, was “paused” last year due to concerns about the site. To date, there has been no action to get this underway while Station 8, located near Sandy Hook, is in the design phase.

Utilities—public water and sewer— mostly provided by the Tuckahoe Creek Service District is available in most of the SIS area. SIS estimates that $12,440,000 of TCSD improvements will be necessary to support anticipated development.

Cost estimates for all recommended infrastructure improvements, including a new elementary school and fire-rescue station, was $153 million, a snapshot “guesstimate” that will undoubtedly soon be dwarfed by inflation. How these improvements will be funded is the big question. Developers contend that proffer dollars will pay for infrastructure upgrades generated by new homes. At current levels, cash proffers are a drop in the bucket.

It's no secret that Goochland would like to attract a data center to boost tax revenue. These need to be close to both water and adequate power sources. The SIS did not investigate the location capacity of existing power lines, which seems odd.

The report recommends that Goochland use a similar approach in other parts of the DGA to analyze and evaluate infrastructure needs and development impact when making land use decisions.

Please take the time to read the SIS to better understand the development process.